Background: Physical inactivity is associated with obesity and contributes substantially to premature mortality, chronic disease, and healthcare and productivity costs in Australia, and is more prevalent in socioeconomically disadvantaged and regional areas. Quantifying achievable life expectancy gains from increased physical activity can strengthen the evidence base for policy action and equitable infrastructure investment.
Aim: To estimate life expectancy gains from increased physical activity in Queensland and express these in terms that are intuitive for public communication.
Methods: We constructed a lifetable for the 2025 Queensland population aged 40 years and over using ABS population and mortality data. Age-specific physical activity levels (steps per day) by quartile were estimated by re-analysing wrist-worn accelerometry data from the HABITAT cohort (n=612). Dose–response hazard ratios from pooled analyses of device-measured cohort studies were applied using potential impact fraction methods, with two alternative approaches: activity quartiles and steps-per-day categories. Uncertainty was quantified via Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations).
Results: If all Queenslanders aged 40 years and over were as active as the most active quartile, life expectancy at birth could reach 88.3 years (95% UI 86.9–89.7), an increase of 4.8 years above observed activity levels. The difference between the least and most active quartiles was 9.7 years (95% UI 8.1–11.4). Reaching most-active-quartile levels would require people in the least active quartile to add the equivalent of 86 minutes per day of moderate-intensity walking, with each additional hour walked associated with approximately three hours of extra life. In step-based modelling, life expectancy under a ≥12,000 steps/day scenario was ~7.1 years higher than under ≤2,000 steps/day.
Conclusions: Increasing physical activity could yield meaningful life expectancy gains for Queenslanders, with the greatest benefits among people who are least active. This provides intuitive, compelling evidence supporting equitable investment in activity-promoting environments and programs, including as part of Queensland's 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games legacy.